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The European Central Bank’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, while longer-term expectations were unchanged. Respondents also expected weaker economic growth, higher unemployment and tighter access to credit; the survey reflects household views, not ECB policy decisions.
The European Central Bank said on 23 October that consumers’ median expectation for euro area inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, up from 3.0% in August, while expectations for economic growth weakened and expected unemployment increased. The monthly survey offers a snapshot of household views on prices, income, jobs and credit, but does not represent the views of ECB decision-makers or staff.
Consumers’ median perception of inflation over the previous 12 months edged up to 3.6% from 3.5%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead remained at 2.9%, and the five-year expectation stayed at 2.5%. The ECB also reported a slight increase in uncertainty about inflation over the coming year; it remained above its level before the conflict in the Middle East began.
Expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth rose to 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the previous 12 months increased to 5.3% from 5.2%. These are consumer expectations and perceptions, rather than measures of future income or spending already recorded.
The outlook for economic activity and jobs moved in a weaker direction. Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Respondents put the current unemployment rate at 10.6%, a level the ECB said was consistent with expectations of a broadly stable labour market outlook.
Households See Prices and Jobs Differently
The results show a split in household expectations: near-term inflation and spending growth ticked higher, while consumers became more pessimistic about economic growth and unemployment. These views matter because household expectations can inform analysis of how people may plan spending, saving and borrowing. They are one input among many, not a forecast of what will happen or a direct signal of the ECB’s next policy decision.
The income differences reported by the survey also matter for understanding how households may experience economic conditions. Respondents in the lowest income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the highest quintile. They also expected higher unemployment and mortgage rates, and higher home-price growth. These are group averages in survey responses, not evidence that every household in either group shares the same outlook.
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What the September Survey Measures
The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults across 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The latest fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026. The ECB uses the results for policy analysis alongside other data sources.
The figures in the release generally refer to a 2% winsorised mean, a calculation that limits the influence of extreme responses. The inflation figures described as median expectations are reported as medians. The ECB publishes country and euro area results through its Data Portal and website, and makes underlying microdata available with survey and methodological information.
“Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.”
— European Central Bank
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Limits of the Household Outlook
The survey records what respondents expect, not what inflation, growth, unemployment, home prices or borrowing conditions will ultimately be. It does not explain why expectations changed between August and September, and the ECB release does not provide a causal account linking the shifts to particular events. Inflation uncertainty increased slightly, but the release does not quantify that change.
The figures also do not describe every household’s experience. Income-quintile comparisons are averages, and responses can differ by age, country and individual circumstances. The survey says younger respondents, aged 18 to 34, continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than respondents aged 35 to 70; it does not establish why those age differences occurred.
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October Results Due in November
The ECB has scheduled publication of the next Consumer Expectations Survey results, covering October 2026, for 27 November 2026. Readers can consult the ECB’s Data Portal and survey page for country-level results and methodological details. Until then, the September release remains a measure of consumer expectations gathered during fieldwork from late August through late September, rather than a statement about subsequent developments.
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Key Questions
What happened to inflation expectations in September?
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively.
Did consumers expect the economy to grow?
The survey’s measure of expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% in September from -1.2% in August. This is what respondents expected, not a recorded economic growth figure.
What did respondents expect for unemployment?
The expected unemployment rate in 12 months increased to 11.3% from 11.0%. The ECB said respondents’ expectations remained only slightly above their perceived current rate of 10.6%.
When will the next ECB consumer survey be released?
The ECB scheduled the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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